A recently leaked U.S. intelligence assessment has shed light on Israel’s potential plans to launch a military strike on Iran, escalating concerns over the growing tension between the two nations. The leak, which has sent ripples through diplomatic circles, offers a rare glimpse into the calculations and potential strategies that Israel may employ to neutralize what it sees as an existential threat from Iran’s nuclear program. But what does this assessment really show, and what could it mean for the region and the world?
US investigators are trying to find out how a pair of highly classified intelligence documents were leaked online. The documents, which appeared on the messaging app Telegram on Friday, contain an alleged US assessment of Israeli plans to attack Iran. The assessment is based on interpretation of satellite imagery and other intelligence.
On Monday White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said President Joe Biden was “deeply concerned” about the leak. Officials have not determined whether the documents were released due to a hack or a leak, Mr Kirby said. For three weeks now, Israel has been vowing to hit Iran hard in retaliation for Iran’s massed ballistic missile attack on Israel on 1 October.
Iran says that was in response to Israel’s assassination of the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on 27 September.
Contents
Are the documents genuine?
Military analysts say the phrasing used in the headings looks credible and is consistent with similar classified documents revealed in the past. Headed “Top Secret”, they include the acronym “FGI”, standing for “Foreign Government Intelligence”. The documents appear to have been circulated to intelligence agencies in the Five Eyes alliance, the five Western nations that regularly share intelligence, namely the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
The acronym “TK” in the documents refers to “Talent Keyhole”, a codeword covering satellite-based Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) and Imagery Intelligence (IMINT).
What do they tell us?
Taken together, the two documents are a classified US assessment of Israel’s preparations to hit targets in Iran, based on intelligence analysed on 15-16 October by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. What features prominently is the mention of two Air Launched Ballistic Missile (ABLM) systems: Golden Horizon and Rocks.
Rocks is a long-range missile system made by the Israeli company Rafael and designed to hit a variety of targets both above and below ground. Golden Horizon is thought to refer to the Blue Sparrow missile system with a range of around 2,000km (1,240 miles).
The significance of this is that it would indicate that the Israeli Air Force is planning to carry out a similar but greatly expanded version of its ABLM attack on an Iranian radar site near Isfahan in April. By launching these weapons from long range and far from Iran’s borders it would avoid the need for Israeli warplanes to overfly certain countries in the region like Jordan.
The documents also report no sign of any preparations by Israel to activate its nuclear deterrent. At the request of Israel, the US government never publicly acknowledges that its close ally Israel even possesses nuclear weapons, so this has caused some embarrassment in Washington.
Israel’s Long-Standing Concerns
Israel has long viewed Iran’s nuclear ambitions as a direct threat to its survival. For years, Israeli leaders have warned that they will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, fearing it would destabilize the region and embolden Tehran’s aggressive posture toward Israel and its allies. Iran, on the other hand, insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though many Western nations remain skeptical.
The leaked U.S. assessment reveals that Israeli military officials are actively preparing for the possibility of a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This is not entirely surprising—Israel has made clear that it retains all options to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. However, the leak offers new details about the depth and scope of Israel’s planning.
What the U.S. Intelligence Assessment Shows
The leaked document suggests that Israeli officials are closely monitoring developments in Iran’s nuclear program and are refining military plans in response to what they perceive as an accelerating threat. According to the assessment, Israel’s strategy would likely focus on a series of coordinated airstrikes targeting key Iranian nuclear sites, with the aim of crippling Tehran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon.
Some key points revealed by the assessment include:
High-level military preparations: Israeli defense forces are reportedly preparing for a complex and multifaceted operation that would involve the use of advanced fighter jets, precision-guided munitions, and possibly even cyber warfare capabilities to disrupt Iran’s defenses.
Concerns over regional backlash: Israeli planners are keenly aware that a strike on Iran could ignite a wider regional conflict, drawing in Iran’s allies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and various proxy militias throughout the Middle East. The assessment notes that Israeli officials are considering these risks and are working to mitigate potential retaliatory attacks.
Coordination with the U.S.: The document suggests that Israel may seek some level of U.S. cooperation or, at the very least, tacit approval for a strike, though it remains unclear how Washington would respond. While the U.S. has its own concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it has historically been more cautious about military intervention, favoring diplomatic solutions where possible.
Timing and Triggers: The leak indicates that Israel is keeping a close eye on key developments within Iran’s nuclear program, looking for potential “red lines” that could trigger military action. This could include the enrichment of uranium to weapons-grade levels or the installation of advanced centrifuges that would significantly reduce the time needed for Iran to produce a nuclear bomb.
A Delicate Balancing Act for Israel
For Israel, the decision to launch a strike on Iran is fraught with risks. On the one hand, Israeli leaders feel a deep obligation to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons at any cost. On the other, such a strike could provoke a massive regional conflict, with consequences that are difficult to predict.
The leaked assessment highlights the tightrope Israel is walking. It needs to ensure that any military action is swift and decisive, but also limited enough to avoid dragging the entire region into a war. Moreover, Israel would need to manage its relationships with key international players, including the U.S., Europe, and neighboring Arab states, many of whom are wary of a military confrontation with Iran.
What Could Happen Next?
While the leaked assessment provides insight into Israel’s strategic thinking, it does not necessarily mean that a strike on Iran is imminent. Military planning often involves preparing for worst-case scenarios, and it’s possible that Israel is simply keeping its options open while continuing to pursue other means of curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
However, the leak does underscore the high stakes involved. If diplomatic efforts to limit Iran’s nuclear program continue to falter—especially after the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal—Israel may feel that it has no choice but to take action. Should that happen, the consequences could be severe, not only for the Middle East but for global stability as well.
U.S.-Israel Relations: A Key Factor
One of the most important factors in determining whether Israel will act is its relationship with the United States. While Israel has proven in the past that it is willing to take unilateral military action when it feels threatened (such as its strikes on Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 and Syria’s in 2007), a strike on Iran would be far more complex and likely require at least some level of U.S. support.
The leaked assessment indicates that Israeli officials are keenly aware of the need for coordination with Washington, particularly in terms of intelligence sharing and diplomatic backing. But it remains to be seen whether the U.S. would greenlight such a strike or if it would push for continued diplomatic engagement with Iran.
Conclusion
The leaked U.S. assessment of Israel’s potential plans to strike Iran offers a sobering look at the escalating tensions between the two nations. While Israel is preparing for the possibility of military action, such a move would come with significant risks, both for Israel and the broader region. As the situation unfolds, much will depend on whether diplomatic efforts can prevent the need for military intervention, or if Israel decides that a preemptive strike is the only way to safeguard its future.
For now, the world watches and waits, hoping that cooler heads prevail, and that the nightmare scenario of a military conflict over Iran’s nuclear program can be avoided.
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