Contents
Election
As the 2024 U.S. presidential race heats up, the focus is on Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Recent polling data reveals a highly competitive race between these two prominent figures, each with their own vision for America’s future.
Voters in the U.S. will head to the polls on November 5 to elect their next president. The election was initially expected to be a rematch of the 2020 contest, but it took a turn in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Now, the big question is whether the result will mean a second term for Donald Trump or America’s first female president.
As Election Day approaches, we’ll track the polls and see how the campaign impacts the race for the White House.
What Do the Polls Say About the Debate?
Over 67 million people watched Harris and Trump face off in the debate in Pennsylvania on September 10. So, what do the polls indicate about who won? A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,400 registered voters who had heard at least something about the debate found that 53% thought Harris won, while 24% believed Trump won. The poll also suggested Harris had a slight lead nationally, with 47% compared to Trump’s 42%—up from 45% to 41% in August.
A YouGov poll of 1,400 adults in the U.S. reached similar conclusions. Among those who watched the debate, 55% said Harris won, and 25% said Trump did. However, it found no change in voting intentions, with Harris maintaining a lead of 46% to 45% as before the debate. There was also no significant bump for Harris in a Morning Consult poll of 3,300 likely voters, which showed her lead at 50% to 45%—although Trump was down one point from 46% in their pre-debate poll.
The current data suggests that while a majority of debate watchers felt Harris came out on top, her performance might not necessarily translate into more votes, as many Americans have already made their choice.
Current Polling Snapshot
Polling results show a tightly contested race between Harris and Trump. A recent Gallup poll places Trump slightly ahead of Harris by a narrow margin, reflecting his strong support among Republican voters. Conversely, a Pew Research survey shows Harris with a slight edge over Trump, indicating a competitive and fluctuating race.
This variation in polling highlights the unpredictable nature of the election cycle. The tight margins suggest that key issues and campaign strategies could significantly impact voter sentiment in the coming months.
Trump’s Campaign Strengths
Donald Trump continues to leverage his established political brand and substantial media presence. His campaign focuses on themes of economic revival and national pride, promising to address what he sees as shortcomings of the current administration. Trump’s rhetoric resonates strongly with his loyal base, who appreciate his direct and often controversial style and his emphasis on conservative principles.
Despite facing legal battles and controversies, Trump’s campaign remains strong, utilizing his ability to draw large crowds and generate media coverage. His platform emphasizes a return to policies that many supporters believe will restore American strength and stability.
Harris’s Strategic Approach
As the incumbent Vice President, Kamala Harris presents herself as a champion of progressive change and continuity from the Biden administration. Her campaign highlights accomplishments in areas like healthcare reform, climate action, and social justice. Harris’s strategy involves appealing to both traditional Democratic voters and those seeking more progressive policies.
One of Harris’s key challenges is to distance herself from mixed reviews of the current administration while reinforcing her own policy achievements. Her campaign is focusing on economic equity and climate action, aiming to energize younger voters and marginalized communities who are crucial to the Democratic base.
Who Is Leading in National Polls?
In the months leading up to Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race, polls consistently showed him trailing former President Trump. Although hypothetical at the time, several polls suggested Harris wouldn’t fare much better.
However, the race tightened once Harris hit the campaign trail, and she has maintained a small lead over Trump in an average of national polls since then. The latest national polling averages for the two candidates are rounded to the nearest whole number.
Swing States and Voter Demographics
The outcome of the election may depend on performance in crucial swing states, where both candidates are heavily campaigning. In battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, Trump’s slight edge reflects his continued appeal to working-class and rural voters. Meanwhile, Harris is focusing on expanding her support in urban centers and among younger voters who are aligned with progressive agendas.
Polling also shows differing support levels among demographic groups. Trump has a solid base among older voters and those in rural areas, while Harris is working to consolidate support from younger voters, women, and minority communities. The effectiveness of these outreach efforts could be crucial in swaying undecided voters.
How Are These Averages Created?
The figures used in the graphics above are averages created by the polling analysis website 538, which is part of American news network ABC News. To create these averages, 538 collects data from individual polls conducted nationally and in battleground states by various polling companies.
As part of their quality control, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet certain criteria, such as transparency about the number of people polled, when the poll was conducted, and the methodology used (telephone calls, text messages, online surveys, etc.).
Can We Trust the Polls?
Currently, the polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other, both nationally and in battleground states. When the race is that close, predicting winners is very challenging.
Polls underestimated support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies are working to address these issues in various ways, including improving how they reflect the makeup of the voting population. These adjustments are difficult, and pollsters must still make educated guesses about factors like voter turnout on November 5.
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