Kamala Harris may have rattled Donald Trump on the debate stage, but the former president’s promise to save a nation in decline resonates with undecided voters in this crucial battleground state.
It took Paul Simon four days to hitchhike from Saginaw, or so he sang in “America,” his iconic ballad of the 1960s with its lost souls on the highways of a country in flux.
Back then, this city’s long, slow decline had already begun, as Michigan’s once mighty car factories shuttered, buffeted by foreign competition. Today, the angst and loneliness of Simon and Art Garfunkel’s song are magnified many times over. I found 57-year-old Rachel Oviedo sitting on her porch, staring out at a streetscape of abandoned furniture and, in the distance, the shell of a plant that once made car parts for Chevrolets and Buicks but finally closed in 2014.
“We sit here all day long,” she told me. “We see homeless people come in and out of there; they need to tear it down and build something else. A grocery store,” she suggested. “Because we don’t have any grocery stores around here.” I first met her the day before Tuesday night’s debate in Philadelphia, when she told me she was still unsure of how she was going to vote.
Trump’s Message of American
Donald Trump, she said, felt like a known quantity and “a man of his word,” while Kamala Harris looked promising but was still somewhat unknown. “I like her,” she said, “but we don’t know what she’s going to do.” Most US states lean so strongly Democratic or Republican that the result is a foregone conclusion.
And if Michigan is one of the few swing states, then Saginaw is one of the few places in it where the vote could genuinely go either way. When they come to cast their ballots, it will be undecided voters like Rachel, in places like this, who will quite literally have the future of America in their hands. Chuck Brenner, a retired Saginaw cop, is another one.
The 49-year-old, who still works part-time in probation and runs his own real estate company, says he’s seen the problems here up close. “Almost everybody’s dad worked in the car industry,” he told me. “Back then, everybody had money, and jobs were readily available. You’ve seen the change—people are struggling because they’re growing up poor, and then there’s drugs and all that.” Trump’s message of American decline resonates with Chuck.
“Absolutely,” he told me. “Because you can see it.” But although he voted for Trump in 2016, he went for Joe Biden in 2020. “There was a lot of drama with Trump,” he added. “And the legal issues. I kind of got sick of that.” This time around, he said he’d only make up his mind once he’d watched the debate and heard what both candidates had to say.
Saginaw, like the wider state of Michigan, was once solidly Democratic—its political inclinations reflected in the list of candidates it has supported over the decades: Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden. That 2016 vote, when Saginaw went—like Mr. Brenner—for Trump, marked a shift.
You don’t have to spend long here to realize just how remarkable that shift was. Jeremy Zehnder runs a truck polishing company, doing the kind of work Democrats used to rely on for support. Surrounded by the giant, gleaming trucks and trailers, the lifeblood of the American economy’s distribution networks, he tells me it’s not debate performances but the cost of living that will determine how he votes.
And a majority of voters tell pollsters they trust Trump more on the economy. “I don’t know of one that isn’t,” he replied. “I mean, we do hundreds of trucks every year. And they all want to talk about it—everybody talks about it.”
In recent polls, Trump’s message has particularly resonated with independent voters and those who feel disenfranchised by the political establishment. This group, which often holds the balance of power in swing states, is showing increased support for Trump’s campaign. Many of these voters are looking for a candidate who addresses their concerns about national decline with concrete proposals and a strong, decisive vision for the future.
Political analysts note that Trump’s ability to tap into these sentiments has significant implications for the 2024 election. His framing of American decline not only helps consolidate his base but also appeals to a broader audience that feels disconnected from the current administration’s policies. This approach positions Trump as a candidate who understands and addresses the fears and frustrations of a significant portion of the electorate.
On the other hand, critics argue that Trump’s portrayal of American decline is overly pessimistic and ignores the progress and achievements made under the current administration. They point to economic indicators, improvements in infrastructure, and advancements in social policies as evidence that the country is not in decline but rather navigating complex challenges.
As the election campaign progresses, the debate over America’s trajectory is likely to intensify. Trump’s message will continue to resonate with voters who feel that their concerns are being overlooked, while opponents will seek to counter his narrative with their own vision of the country’s future.
In summary, Donald Trump’s message of American decline is striking a significant chord with pivotal voters. His focus on restoring American greatness and addressing perceived failures taps into widespread anxieties and positions him as a candidate who offers a clear alternative to the status quo. As the election approaches, this narrative will play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape and influencing voter decisions.
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