Piece of advice for you – never buy a huge amount of champagne unless you’re absolutely certain it’s worth celebrating. In November 2016, Russian ultranationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky was so excited by Donald Trump’s victory, and so sure that it would transform US-Russian relations, he splurged on 132 bottles of bubbly down at the Duma, Russia’s parliament, and partied away (in his party offices) in front of the TV cameras.
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Moscow Had High Hopes for Trump in 2016
She wasn’t alone in popping champagne. The day after Mr. Trump’s stunning White House victory, Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of state channel RT, tweeted her plan to drive around Moscow with an American flag waving from her window. Then there was the day when a Russian official told me she had smoked a cigar and drunk a bottle of champagne-yes, more champagne-to toast Trump’s winning. Expectations were high in Moscow that Trump would scrap sanctions on Russia; perhaps-even-recognize Crimea, annexed from Ukraine, as part of Russia.
“On the other hand, the value of Trump was that he never preached on human rights in Russia,” says Konstantin Remchukov, owner and editor-in-chief of the newspaper Nezavisimaya Gaetani never took much time before all that fizz went flat. “Trump introduced the heaviest sanctions against Russia at that time,” recalls Remchukov.
And by the end of his term, many were disappointed with his presidency. “Which is why, eight years on-publicly at least-Russian officials are more cautious about the prospect of a second Trump term.
2016: High Hopes and a Promising Start
When Trump first campaigned for president in 2016, many people in Russia were riveted by his unconventional style and disruptive approach to U.S. politics. By declaring publicly his admiration for Putin and skepticism about NATO, his candidacy raised hopes among Russian officials and commentators that he would change U.S. foreign policy to a direction more favorable to Moscow.
Through his campaign and into the early days of his presidency, Trump seemed to present a departure from the traditionally hawkish stance that Washington had taken toward Russia, especially since the annexation of Crimea back in 2014. Moscow saw him as someone who may ease sanctions and pursue a more cooperative relationship.
There was a lot of optimism,” said one Russian political analyst who is well informed about Kremlin thinking. “Trump’s rhetoric on getting along with Russia, paired with his hawkishness vis-à-vis NATO, made one think that he would be prepared to negotiate with us on something approaching equal terms.”.
Of course, Trump’s presidency did mark some change in tone-but little of the high hopes Moscow had for any kind of major reset in the relationship translated into actual changes. Sanctions over Russia’s actions in Ukraine remained in place and were joined by a lot of internal and external pressure on the Trump administration to take a harder line against Russia, especially after the cloud of Russian interference allegations over the 2016 election started enveloping the political atmosphere in Washington.
2024: A More Cautious Approach
As Trump seeks the presidency once more in 2024, Moscow is viewing the candidacy with considerably more restraint. The Kremlin remains keen on anyone who might finally emerge as the U.S. president who would be pragmatic toward Russia, but officials have toned down their expectations after the mixed results of Trump’s first term.
“There’s no euphoria and hope like in 2016,” said a senior Russian foreign policy expert. “This time, they are more to the point. So when Trump promised promising things, there was not that cardinal breakthrough in relations, which people in Moscow were hoping for. And if Trump succeeds, then there are still limitations to what he can do, considering the US political system is split.”
Russian experience under President Trump taught the Kremlin that the foreign policy of the United States doesn’t easily shift, even with a president supportive of Russia in public. Trump was met with heavy resistance from Congress, many of them his party members, who wanted to keep a tightrope with Russia. The robust political system in the United States with checks and balances also limited the ability of President Trump from undertaking unilateral changes to U.S.-Russia policy.
In 2024, Russian officials are also very sensitive to the political landscape of the United States and how Trump’s candidacy is perceived. For years of allegations and investigations concerning his ties with Moscow, Trump’s relationship with Moscow remains a contention in American politics. This makes rapprochement efforts even more complicated should Trump win.
Moscow Shifts Priorities
A further reason for Moscow’s more cautious behaviour is that the international geostrategic situation has shifted since 2016. Russia is becoming more interested in its regional considerations and a continued military presence in Ukraine. Relations with the West are even worse than ever since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022; Moscow’s greatest concern is making its way through an increasingly hostile economic and diplomatic environment it faces at the hands of both Europe and the U.S.
“While Russia remains desirous of a better U.S. administration, the circumstances are quite different now,” stated a foreign policy specialist. “The Ukraine conflict has become the major issue in Russia’s relations with the West, and that will not fundamentally change, regardless of which member of the Democratic Party will be inhabiting the White House.”
There is growing recognition in Moscow that the overall stance of Washington toward Russia—particularly regarding sanctions and military aid to Ukraine—may not suddenly change even if Trump returns to office. While Trump has criticized U.S. involvement in Ukraine and called for reducing military aid, the broad bipartisan consensus of Congress to support Ukraine remains strong.
Looking to the Future
Looking to the Future
Despite the warning, Moscow remains carefully attuned to the Trump campaign. Some in Moscow believe that a Trump victory could at least de-escalate tensions, especially if he advocates for a review of U.S. military commitments abroad and for a roll-back of sanctions. But officials and analysts are realistic about the hurdles of achieving any change of substance in U.S.-Russia relations.
In the meantime, Moscow continues to concentrate on forging relations with other world powers such as China, and fortifying its own domestic resilience against ongoing Western sanctions.
In the end, although it may prefer a Trump to a Biden term, Moscow’s days of hope and expectation are behind it. It’s learning that U.S. foreign policy is made up of much more than just one man, no matter who that one man is.
For now, the Kremlin will look and weigh its options but understand that regardless of the outcome, the road to improved relations with Washington remains
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