Piece of advice for you – never buy a huge amount of champagne unless you’re absolutely certain it’s worth celebrating. In November 2016, Russian ultranationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky was so excited by Donald Trump’s victory, and so sure that it would transform US-Russian relations, he splashed out on 132 bottles of bubbly down at the Duma, Russia’s parliament, and partied away (in his party offices) in front of the TV cameras.
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Moscow Had High Hopes for Trump in 2016
He wasn’t the only one celebrating. The day after Trump’s surprise White House win, Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of state channel RT, tweeted her intention to drive around Moscow with an American flag in her car window. And I’ll never forget the moment a Russian official told me she had smoked a cigar and drunk a bottle of champagne (yes, MORE champagne) to toast Trump winning. In Moscow, expectations were high that Trump would scrap sanctions against Russia; perhaps, even, recognise the Crimean Peninsula, annexed from Ukraine, as part of Russia.
“The value of Trump was that he never preached on human rights in Russia,” explains Konstantin Remchukov, the owner and editor-in-chief of newspaper Nezavisimaya Gaetani didn’t take long for all that fizz to go flat. “Trump introduced the heaviest sanctions against Russia at that time,” recalls Remchukov.
“By the end of his term, a lot of people were disappointed in his presidency. “Which is why, eight years on – publicly at least – Russian officials are more cautious about the prospect of a second Trump term.
2016: High Hopes and a Promising Start
When Trump first ran for president in 2016, his unorthodox style and disruptive approach to American politics caught the attention of many in Russia. His public admiration for Putin and his skepticism about NATO sparked hopes among Russian officials and commentators that Trump would shift U.S. foreign policy in a direction more favorable to Moscow.
Throughout his campaign and into the early days of his presidency, Trump appeared to offer a break from the traditionally hawkish stance that Washington had taken toward Russia, particularly after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Moscow viewed Trump as someone who might soften sanctions and pursue a more cooperative relationship.
“There was a lot of optimism,” said a Russian political analyst familiar with Kremlin thinking. “Trump’s rhetoric about getting along with Russia, combined with his criticism of NATO, gave the impression that he would be open to negotiating with us on more equal terms.”
But while Trump’s presidency did see some changes in tone, many of the high hopes Moscow had for a major reset in relations never materialized. Sanctions imposed over Russia’s actions in Ukraine remained in place, and Trump’s administration faced significant internal and external pressure to take a tougher stance on Russia, particularly after allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 election clouded the political atmosphere in Washington.
2024: A More Cautious Approach
As Trump campaigns for the presidency again in 2024, Moscow is watching his candidacy with far more caution. While the Kremlin remains interested in any potential U.S. president who might be more pragmatic toward Russia, officials have tempered their expectations after the mixed results of Trump’s first term.
“There’s no sense of euphoria or hope like there was in 2016,” said a senior Russian foreign policy expert. “This time, we are being more realistic. Trump’s promises didn’t lead to the breakthrough in relations that some in Moscow were expecting. We have to remember that even if Trump wins, there are limits to what he can achieve, especially with the U.S. political system as divided as it is.”
Russia’s experiences during Trump’s presidency taught the Kremlin that U.S. foreign policy doesn’t change easily, even with a president who is publicly friendly toward Moscow. Trump faced significant pushback from Congress, including members of his own party, who insisted on maintaining a hardline stance on Russia. The robust U.S. political system, with its checks and balances, limited Trump’s ability to unilaterally change the direction of U.S.-Russia relations.
In 2024, Russian officials are also keenly aware of the political dynamics in the U.S. and how Trump’s candidacy is viewed. After years of investigations and political battles surrounding his ties to Russia, Trump’s relationship with Moscow remains a point of contention in American politics. This makes any move toward rapprochement even more difficult, should Trump win.
Shifting Priorities for Moscow
Another reason for Moscow’s more measured stance is that the global geopolitical landscape has shifted since 2016. Russia is now more focused on its own regional interests and its ongoing military involvement in Ukraine. Relations with the West have deteriorated further since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and Moscow’s primary concern is navigating the increasingly hostile economic and diplomatic environment it faces from both Europe and the U.S.
“While Russia is still interested in a more favorable U.S. administration, the reality is that the stakes have changed,” said the foreign policy expert. “The conflict in Ukraine has become the central issue in Russia’s relations with the West, and that will not change, regardless of who is in the White House.”
There is also a growing recognition in Moscow that Washington’s overall stance toward Russia—especially concerning sanctions and military aid to Ukraine—may not shift dramatically, even if Trump returns to office. While Trump has criticized U.S. involvement in Ukraine and called for reducing military aid, the broad bipartisan consensus in Congress to support Ukraine remains strong.
Looking to the Future
Despite the caution, Russia continues to monitor Trump’s campaign closely. Some in Moscow believe that a Trump victory could lead to at least a de-escalation of tensions, particularly if he pushes for a reevaluation of U.S. military commitments abroad and a reduction in sanctions. But officials and analysts are clear-eyed about the challenges of achieving any meaningful shift in U.S.-Russia relations.
In the meantime, Moscow is maintaining its focus on cultivating relationships with other global powers like China, as well as on fortifying its own domestic resilience in the face of ongoing Western sanctions.
Ultimately, while Moscow might prefer a Trump presidency over another Biden term, the days of high hopes and expectations are behind it. Russia is proceeding with caution, having learned that U.S. foreign policy is shaped by more than just one man, even if that man is Donald Trump.
For now, the Kremlin will watch from the sidelines, weighing its options but understanding that regardless of the outcome, the road to improved relations with Washington remains complex.
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